The Notorious Minnesota Winter

Albert Lea, MN

Photo Taken By Tim Engstrom

The first day of winter is only a little over a month away (12/21/08), and I've been warned (repeatedly) that I'm in for it. I trust what the locals say around here say. They've been right about everything thus far-- the SPAM burger is pretty good, the Asian beetles will attack in October, and people don't get much nicer than here, anywhere.

Now it hasn't been exactly a brutal fall... in fact, we set record highs several times. High temperatures exceeded 70 degrees in early November! I saw many people walking around in short-sleeves, even shorts and sandals. I began to become complacent... thinking this isn't so bad, is it? That quickly ended on November 7th when we saw an inch of snow and temperatures in the 20s. Reality check. It really can go from mild to wild, pretty quickly.

So my curious mind began to wonder... how bad are the winters in southern Minnesota? Could they be as bad as they say? I began digging through data and here is what I found:

Let's start out with some of the snowiest winters. I don't know about you, but I rather take the 'bad news' first, then see if there is any good news left to be found. I used the National Weather Service climate records from Rochester, MN.
Top 5 Snowiest Winter Seasons:
1. 84.6 " 1996-1997 -- That's over 7 feet of snow!
2. 77.5" 1950-1951
3. 74.5" 1961-1962
4. 73.6" 1951-1952
5. 73.3" 1978-1979

Top 5 One Day Snow Totals:
1. 19.8" March 18, 2005
2. 15.4" January 22, 1982
3. 13.0" April 26, 1988
4. 10.8" March 10, 1956
5. 10.6" November 25, 1952

Now to some of the more 'unimpressive' winters.

Top 5 Least Snowy Seasons
1. 9.1" 1967-1968
2. 10.5" 1913-1914
3. 17.5" 1924-1925
4. 19.4" 1930-1931
5. 20.5" 1910-1911

There have been several months that we have experienced little if any measurable snow! (at least in Rochester). Record books show that February of 1920 saw no measurable snow at all, not even a trace! March of 1981 and December 1943 saw only a trace. There are also a few months where we only saw a few tenths of an inch of snow (January 2006 & February 1954).

Sometimes the lack of snowfall comes at a price. Often times it means the jet stream is so far to the south that we are bitter cold, sunny, and bone dry. Record cold can take over for weeks at a time. Here is a look at some of the coldest winters here in southern Minnesota:

Top 5 Coldest Winters (Average Temperature for December-January-February)
1. 5.6 degrees 1978-1979
2. 6.3 degrees 1886-1887
3. 7.5 degrees 1887-1888
4. 8.0 degrees 1935-1936
5. 8.7 degrees 1977-1978

It's not too common to have two ugly and bitter cold winter's back to back, but that's exactly what happened in 1886-1888. Good thing none of us were around to experience that! That's COLD! & certainly makes for a well anticipated spring. I see why the summer months are so cherished and why everyone fears the upcoming cold season like the plague. However, there have been a few winters that have been in the "not so bad" category.

Top 5 Warmest Winters on Record
1. 26.3 degrees 1930-1931
2. 25.5 degrees 2001-2002
3. 24.7 degrees 1997-1998
4. 23.7 degrees 1986-1987
5. 23.4 degrees 1918-1919

Sometimes you can go from one of your coldest winter's (1916-1917 6th coldest) on record to the next year having one of your warmest years on record (1918-1919 5th warmest). The weather has so much variability, and that's why winter forecasting is so challenging... and yet at the same time so fun.

It's freezing here! (literally) when the average high temperature is below freezing from November 27th - March 2nd. That's over 3 months. Ouch! Sunshine comes at a premium, it [winter] is the cloudiest season we experience in Minnesota. There can be stretches of weeks where the sun doesn't make anything more than a 'guest appearance'.

So many of you now are probably posing the million dollar question: "So, what about this upcoming winter?" As a meteorologist it's my job to tell you there are a lot of variables that go into a winter forecast, and those variables can make or break a cold and snowy winter. Right now we are in a "Neutral" phase of the Enso cycle. This mean winter could literally go either way, warm, cold... or ... average. Anyone that tells you they truly can tell you what the winter will be like is lying. However, many make a good educated guess. NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) makes one every year... I mean it is your tax dollars at work here.

This is their winter forecast:

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK (ABOVE)

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK (ABOVE)

The government's educated guess is that we will see above average temperatures this winter with a 50/50 shot of having above normal precipitation (rain/sleet/snow). If you would like to see their full winter weather outlook you can find it here.

Winter always seem like the longest season and summer the shortest. If you like the cold and snow, I hope you have a banner year. For the rest of us: It's Minnesota. I have my movie stash, books, magazines, and that nagging "to-do list" to always be taking care of. Maybe I'll actually accomplish it this winter. Hopefully you will too.

Take care and stay warm. My next post will talk about the month of November, and the pesky clouds associated with it.

Steve